Opining in the Octagon, September 2015: Holly “Hype-Check” Holm vs. Ronda Rousey

I’m a big MMA fan, so occasionally (at least once per month) I’ll give you all my opinion on a big story in the UFC or Mixed Martial Arts world. And you’ll read it. Because I said so.

September 2015: Can Holly Holm be the Hype-Check challenger for the merciless juggernaut that is Ronda Rousey?

I think she has a chance. There’s a precedent for this in the UFC, when a dominant champion seems to be tearing through a weight-class only to get hype-checked by a seemingly innocuous challenger:

1. Matt Serra knocked out George St. Pierre (who used to be a fighter, I swear it) at UFC 69 to win the welterweight title. Serra was just supposed to be another can for the GSP train to eat and discard, but the french-canadian champ looked like he was going through the motions, and a shot to the chin put him down, and put the belt around a chubby, undersized Long Island native’s waist. St. Pierre would get the belt back, and pummel Serra in their rematch at UFC 83, but Serra is still the only loss he suffered while holding the welterweight title.
   

   Even he couldn’t believe it happened. And he was there.

2. This one wasn’t for a title, but when Mauricio “Shogun” Rua made the move to the UFC from Pride FC, he was supposed to roll through the light heavyweight division and get  a shot at then-champion Rampage Jackson. The problem was he had to go through Forrest Griffin to get there. Griffin made a statement for all UFC fighters, and started his own climb to the top of the division by slapping on a rear naked choke at the end of the third round. Rua looked unprepared to take on the hard-charging Griffin, and got stung for his overconfidence. His UFC career never quite matched the success he had in Pride.
   

   The beginning of the end for Shogun Rua.

3. Back in March, Anthony Pettis had a lot going for him: He was the first UFC athlete on a Wheaties box, won the lightweight title by being the only person on the planet (at the time) who could beat Benson Henderson, and had defended the title against a game Gilbert Melendez three months earlier. Then he ran into Rafael Dos Anjos, who pushed him around the cage for 25 minutes, busted his eye, and won a unanimous decision to take the lightweight title. Pettis didn’t look cocky, but he did look human. Time will tell if this was a hype-check, or a changing of the guard.
   

   The theme for the fight. Busted eye came later.

Ronda Rousey may have more going on than any of the aforementioned upsetees (It’s a term). She’s thinking about starring in her own autobiographical movie, is waging a futile but entertaining war of words with Floyd Mayweather, and can’t get away from the speculation about a super-fight with Cyborg Justino in the future. Rather than throw Miesha Tate back into the meat grinder to see if she can last 60 seconds this time, the UFC decided to make Holly Holm, a relative MMA unknown, the next victim while we all wait for Cyborg to figure out the right diet plan to make 135 lbs.

But, in my humble opinion, Holm isn’t just another victim, to paraphrase a pro wrestling legend. She’s a hunter herself, just with different stripes. She might be the most decorated boxer and kick-boxer in the UFC (man or woman) and is undeniably the female fighter with the best boxing pedigree in the sport. Her boxing record of 33 wins (9 KOs, 23 decisions), 2 losses, and 3 draws is incredible on its own, and coupled with 18 championships in 3 weight classes, its downright stellar. She also won an amateur kickboxing title in 2001, and has a litany of other awards for her boxing achievements.

Her young MMA career is less extensive but just as impressive, with 9 wins (6 KOs, 3 decisions) and no losses spread across several different promotions, with two decision wins against UFC competition.

Wow. Two UFC fights. And both were decisions. Why in the hell do I think this woman, impressive as she is, can survive against the most dominant athlete in the world?

It’s the reading between the lines of each win, adding up the sum of her career, and seeing her fighting style that has me (and several others with way more knowledge than me) smelling an upset. Holm is dangerous with her hands and her feet, as some of her MMA knockouts came from head kicks, leg kicks, and body kicks. She’s also patient, as evidenced by the decision-heavy boxing record. If she was a berserker-rage type boxer, Rousey would chew her up, lock in an armbar, and spit her out, probably in less than a minute. But Holly Holm is a stalker, content to pick and chose her strikes, keeping her range extended with her feet, and then moving in for the kill when she smells blood.

Rousey has been improving her striking game, evidenced by two very quick TKOs in her last three fights. Against Correia her striking looked good but still technically a bit shaky. Hands were dropped, people. I saw. If she gets Holm on the ground, it’s probably a done deal. But Judo (Rousey’s main discipline), especially in a sans-gi, skin-heavy environment like the UFC, does require getting up-close and personal to a clinch position before initiating a throw. Holm has the experience and skill to keep Ronda out of range, and the striking finesse to punish her if she does get in close. And The Preacher’s Daughter (Holm’s rather wordy nickname) is not someone Rousey wants to stand with.

With some headlines and articles intimating fans are getting bored with shelling out the money for a Pya-Per-View then watching Ronda Rousey win in less than a minute, and professional athletes like Lolo Jones stating they could make the magic 60-second mark, you might be tempted to turn away from UFC 193 in two months. Hell, if the fight lasts 14 seconds, you can catch nearly the whole thing on ESPN the next week. This fight, at the very least, will be worth the money. It won’t be over in 30 seconds. It won’t be over in the first round. These are my bold predictions.

At least I can’t be wrong for two months.

Signing off.

If You Don’t Get It I Can’t Explain It To You Vol. 2: The UFC

Why would you watch sweaty shirtless men and occasionally some sweaty workout-clothed women hit each other and roll around on a mat? Unless you’re by yourself with the lights dimmed and the romantic music on, what’s the appeal? If you don’t get it, I can’t explain it to you. But I’ll try:
I was actually living in UFC-mecca, aka Las Vegas, Nevada, when this sport started entering the public consciousness in a big way, so I might be a little more sensitive to the UFC than most folks. Also, there’s a west coast bias to UFC Fandom due to most of the Live PPV events taking place late in the evening (9-10pm EST) and often not staging the best fights until midnight. That can make it less accessible to those of us here on the East Coast. I’d love to say I watched all the really old Ultimate Fighting Championships, where they basically put a bunch of angry people who could fight in a ring, didn’t make any rules (regular groin-punching was common), and let them go at it. But I wasn’t.
I started getting into it in 2004, when the reality TV show The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) went on the air, and I was hooked. That first season told the story of these men putting their lives on hold and struggling to get a UFC contract. It culminated in, to me, the best and most important fight in the history of the UFC, Stephen Bonnar vs. Forest Griffin to win the show, a UFC contract, and a new Range Rover. If you want to understand why I like the UFC, watch that first season (TUF kind of goes off the rails after that, and isn’t as fun) and the final show. Bonnar and Griffin, two of the funniest most likable blokes in the house, go out in the finale and put on a show. They could’ve tried to be technical with takedowns, submissions, etc. but instead, they decided to stand and punch each other for 15 minutes. It was so epic that Dana White and the UFC decided to give both men UFC contracts afterwards.

And that’s kind of the appeal of the UFC in a nutshell. Some of the fights can be overly technical, and even somewhat boring. Only the most educated of fans can appreciate the nuances of the chess match of Jiu-Jitsu that involves leverage, bluffs, feints, and position. To most folks it looks like two sweaty dudes rolling around on a mat while people watch and yell (some folks have used the term “homo-erotic” and I sadly can’t say its inaccurate). Even then there’s the dreaded “lay and pray” tactic that involves a wrestler essentially tackling and laying on top of an opponent till the time runs out. Even educated fans hate that.

UFC is the closest thing we have to legal, condoned bloodsport in the modern world. That can be a turn-off to some people, and in the last decade Dana White (CEO) has strived to make it as accessible, regulated, and mass-appealing as he could. And overall he’s succeeded. UFC has supplanted boxing as America’s #1 combat sport. He’s turned what was a laughable stable of thugs and uncontrolled violence into a pulse-pounding, controlled competition between two highly-skilled athletes. His biggest draw, a female fighter named Ronda Rousey, is in blockbuster movies and on Sports Illustrated covers. The sanctioning and control removes some of the guilt viewers feel at watching two grown men strive to hurt each other, and that ingrained desire to watch violence that we all have, but may not want to acknowledge, can be exercised in a healthy way.
For the most part, the competitors are college-educated and diverse, and generally disciplined and well-behaved. One of the tenets of all the martial arts that can form the basis or a component of their training is self-discipline. With a few notable exceptions (War Machine, Thiago Silva, Rampage Jackson, and most recently John Jones) the UFC stable is full of potential role-models, I’d even say more so than an NFL Roster. These athletes weren’t babied or sheltered from consequences and reality the way many prodigies in other sports are, and the very vast majority have earned their way into national prominence through hard work and dedication. Yes, they try and hurt each other for a living. No, that doesn’t mean they’re bad people.

The UFC may not be for everyone, but I encourage everyone to at least give it a try. They have plenty of events on cable channels and every few months on broadcast TV (Fox). You might be surprised to find that internal bloodlust likes to be sated once in a while. Don’t be afraid of it. Embrace it. Millions of people have, and we’re ok. Mostly ok.
Signing off.